“The Saudi Roundup at the Ritz”
An attempt at objective assessment of the Ground Reality
There is a big and potentially dangerous upheaval playing our in Saudi Arabia. Apart from the usual Muslim fascination for the Ummah and the Islamic World, this particular locale is genuinely and strongly and emotionally relevant and pertinent to one-point-eight billion Muslims on the planet. It is the birth place of Islam, the resting place of our Holy Prophet and the seat of Kaaba, the focal point of Muslims around the World. The social media is a proof for this with its numerous posts. However most of them are surreal, wishful thinking, bizarre interpretations and obviously biased conjectures. This seems to be unavoidable because of the very complex and volatile political atmosphere in the region. Add to this our (Muslims’) well known approach and bias in such situations—“us against them”. We need some objective facts for a proper and realistic assessment. I found an editorial by its Board in New York Times "The Saudi Roundup at the Ritz" dated November 8, 2017 pretty helpful. I have selected some of the facts mentioned therein for your perusal:
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s wholesale arrests in Saudi Arabia have been seen as fundamentally a power play to cement his internal control over the kingdom. But his aggressive moves to reshape both his country and the Middle East are likely to have wider consequences, further destabilizing a region already in turmoil while increasing the chances of a Saudi war with Iran.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s wholesale arrests in Saudi Arabia have been seen as fundamentally a power play to cement his internal control over the kingdom. But his aggressive moves to reshape both his country and the Middle East are likely to have wider consequences, further destabilizing a region already in turmoil while increasing the chances of a Saudi war with Iran.
Some of his reforms are admirable, necessary, long overdue and overwhelmingly popular with millions of younger Saudis.
But the pace of change and the methods he has chosen to achieve it, as well as his belligerent approach toward Iran, have raised questions about his judgment.
That was certainly true on Sunday when he shattered the consensus-driven, 70-year-old governing structure by arresting as many as 500 people, who are being detained at the Ritz-Carlton hotel in Riyadh, including at least 11 princes; the head of the most important military branch, the National Guard; and Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, one of the world’s richest men, who has been a major shareholder in Citigroup, Apple and Twitter.
And the crackdown is expected to be welcomed by the citizenry. Even so, the kingdom does not have a credible or transparent justice system, and it is far from certain that those arrested will be treated fairly.
Some international investors fear a period of internal dissension that could mean the project’s collapse; indeed, Western intelligence analysts do not rule out the possibility of a coup once the king dies.
Saudi Arabia, a Sunni-majority country, sees Shiite-majority Iran as its chief rival for regional influence and has enlisted Mr. Trump in its efforts to constrain Iran. The two states are already fighting proxy wars in Yemen and Syria and are competing for political influence in Lebanon and Iraq. And Saudi Arabia is leading an effort to boycott and ostracize Qatar because it has dealings with Iran.
The Trump administration has done little to temper Saudi Arabia’s regional ambitions or moderate its inflammatory approach to Iran; in fact it has done the opposite.
Prince Mohammed is fighting many battles, with mixed results, on many fronts, against Yemen, Qatar and his own political system. Cooler heads — whether in Washington or Riyadh — should counsel him not to add a war with Iran to his list.
